Future Self Interview

Origin. Prospective hindsight (Mitchell, Russo & Pennington, 1989); Klein's premortem.

Mechanism. Prospective hindsight — describing a future event as though it has already occurred — measurably increases the number and specificity of causes generated. The counterfactual framing converts a probability judgment into an explanatory task, which people perform better.

Procedure. Project to a fixed future date. Assert an outcome as accomplished fact. Interview the future self on how it happened, what nearly derailed it, and what was abandoned. The specificity of the causes is the yield.

Applies to. Planning under uncertainty; identifying the decision that will look obvious in retrospect.

Limitations. The effect is on cause generation, not on forecast accuracy. Treating the interview as a prediction is an error the technique invites.