Iceberg Analysis

Origin. Systems thinking (Meadows; Senge's levels of perspective).

Mechanism. Sorts observations onto four levels — events, patterns of behavior over time, systemic structures, mental models — and asserts that leverage increases monotonically with depth while visibility decreases.

Procedure. Record the event. Ask whether it is a pattern. If a pattern, what structure (stocks, flows, delays, feedback loops) produces it. What belief holds the structure in place.

Applies to. Recurrent failures that have resisted event-level intervention.

Limitations. The 'deeper is more leveraged' claim is asserted, not demonstrated, and interventions at the mental-model level are the slowest and least verifiable of the four.