Premortem

Origin. Gary Klein (2007); prospective hindsight research.

Mechanism. Prospective hindsight applied to failure. Assuming the failure has occurred raises the number of causes generated by roughly thirty percent relative to asking for the probability of failure, because explanation is easier than estimation.

Procedure. 'It is eighteen months from now. The project failed completely. Write the history.' Individually and silently first, then pool. Attack the most-cited causes.

Applies to. Any plan that a group has already committed to. It works because it licenses dissent without requiring the dissenter to oppose the group.

Limitations. Increases cause generation, not forecast calibration. The list of causes is not a probability distribution over them.